Playing Chicken with Richard

Richard Seymour is a Raider…or he could be soon…or he might not be. Depending on which side of the debate of the merits of this trade you stand on, you are either elated, or disappointed at this point, and your feelings have most likely changed 10 times in the last three days.

IMO, if the Raiders can sign Seymour to a long-term deal, it is a fair trade for both sides. And most would agree, if they can get by the intellectual dishonesty being spewed by the Boys at Bristol, more on that another time, if the trade goes through.

The thing is, I no longer believe that this is a high stakes game of chicken between Seymour and the Raiders. I think this is a game between the Patriots and Seymour, with the Raiders just willingly going along with the charade, with the hopes that they can reap the rewards should the trains collide.

The leaks of strange information the past few days are what have lead me to this conclusion. Cable’s slip that there are financial issues to deal with in New England, the reports today that Seymour though he was close to signing an extension to stay in New England. Then you take into account that Seymour is the one player who, along with his agent, Eugene Parker, has actually won a stare down with Belichick in the past, and you have the ingredients for something different.

My theory is that Seymour and the Patriots were in discussions on an extension, and things were not going as well as Seymour thought. The Pats, tired of dealing with the unreasonable demands of Parker issued a take it or leave it deal, and Parker thought they were bluffing.

The Patriots then put together a deal with Oakland to send Seymour there for the 1st round pick in 2011, they also gave the Raiders the parameters of the deal that Parker and Seymour were looking for, and the Raiders found it acceptable.

The Patriots have flipped the table and called Parker and Seymour’s bluff.

“You say if you can’t get this deal here, you’ll take it somewhere else, well take it in Oakland”.

Now it is a full-fledged game of chicken between the Patriots and Seymour. Will Seymour blink 1st and accept the deal the Pats have on the table? Will Seymour take the offer in Oakland and report?

One of these sides is going to lose; if Seymour goes to Oakland the Patriots loose a key clog in their attempt to get another ring, a 2011 pick is no help to the team this year, and the window of opportunity in the NFL is too short to count on anything that far down the line.

If Seymour returns to New England at the reduced rate, yet another player will have lost the stare down with Belichick. His last chance at a big payday will be gone, sure he will be well paid, but he could have had more.

And where does this leave Oakland, if Seymour doesn’t come, well the fans will be let down, but the team will be about where it was before, a 6 to 8 win team needing line help. If he does come, the Raiders will be a 7 to 9 win team, needing a little less line help, but with less amo down the line

Finding a new home for DeAngelo

Things seemed to have slowed down a bit with free agency, as is to be expected about a week in. So its time to start looking forward to the NFL draft, I know, it seems like I already have with the daily mock draft posts, but there is no thinking involved with those, Romeo did all the work. Now, I’m not going to quit talking about free agency, but the focus will shift.

Where does DeAnglo Go?

In a mock draft that I’m taking part in on another site the Texans pulled off a blockbuster trade to obtain DeAngelo Hall. And of course being the know-it-all that I am, I blasted the GM for the Texans for getting hosed.

But it got me to thinking, where will Hall end up? I’m guessing that the Falcons are torn as far as Hall is concerned. If they can get him to shut his trap and buy in, he is something they are short on, a good young player. But he is also a link to the old regime, and probably the biggest Vick supporter on the team. A whole ugly mess all the way around.

As far as Hall is concerned, he wants out and has made no secret of his desires. Unless someone on the Falcon’s staff can reach him, he will be a distraction all year.

So where does DeAngelo fit? I filtered through the team. First I took a look at team needs. Who needs a CB. Not who would like a CB, while Hall isn’t a shut down corner, he is still one of the better guys out there.

That got me this list:

Texans (Sure I blasted them, but they only have 1 quality starter, if he is healthy)
Saints
Ravens
Patriots
Dolphins
Cowboys
Chiefs
Browns

Sure the Giants have been the rumored landing spot, but they didn’t make my list, as their need isn’t high enough to warrant giving up the 1st round choice. Now we start witling down the list. The Texans have Daunte Robbinson who will be looking for a contract next year, and have too many needs to wrap up that much money in CB’s. The Saints are in division and have spent too much on free agents the last two off seasons to tie up Samual type money. The Ravens have two good corners, they can’t afford Hall, even if their guys are long in the tooth and injury prone. The Dolphins and Chiefs both have too many other needs. And the Browns have already blown their load by trading all of their picks this year.

That leaves me with two teams. The Pats and the Cowboys. And to be honest, they were the two I focused on before I even started this exercise. They are both a player or two away from being the prohibitive favorite to reach the Super Bowl, and they both have relatively few other needs.

So what would I give up if I were the GM for one of these teams? Well if I were the Cowboys, its easy. I’d offer up the 2nd of my 1st round picks. Its 4 spots higher than what my in division rival will offer up, so even if I’m rejected, I’ve just upped what the Giants would have to give. Jerry Jones could still get Felix Jones with pick 22 or a young WR. It’s the kind of big splash that Jerry likes to make.

Now the Pats are a little more complicated. They draft way to high in round 1 to give up the draft pick. But with a little maneuvering they could obtain the picks necessary to pull this off. Now I’m assuming that the Saints are targeting Keith Rivers, LB, USC. He is a top talent who fills their biggest need, other than CB. But he also fills one of the Bengals’ biggest needs. And the Bengals draft 1 spot ahead of the Saints. So the Pats can play the two teams off each other to get their 1st and 2nd round pick for the Pats #1.

The 2nd round pick that the Pats pick up with that trade is the amo they should use to try and pry Hall away from the Falcons. Now if the Cowboys or Giants are serious about sending a 1st round pick to Atlanta, than the Pats are going to have to sweeten the Pot. But they have that sweetener with their 2nd round pick and both their and the Raiders pick in the 3rd round. So some combination of 2 of those 4 picks should get the job done. And the Pats would still have 3 picks in the 1st three rounds to find LB help and get younger at other aging positions.

Cowboys or Pats, that’s where I’d put my money for Hall ending up. Sometimes the rich do just get richer.