Lamont is gone, Nnamdi is in camp, Lane seems to have the ear of the troops, I was starting to think that the Big-Top was too busy in Green Bay to set up a 3rd ring in Oakland. Well I was proven wrong Saturday.
Javon Walker had to be talked out of retiring earlier in the week. Here comes the fucking clown car.
I wasn’t a fan of the Walker signing. The guy was coming off of a serious injury, and had reportedly been having trouble getting his head back in the game since witnessing Darrent Williams murder. Walker was a huge risk for the Raiders, and they compounded that risk by handing him a huge contract, filled with guaranteed money.
Since OTA’s, there has been little positive news coming out of practices on the Javon front. According to reports and Lane, he showed up out of shape, and showed little of the burst that had gotten him big contracts in Denver and Oakland.
Then the whole Vegas incident hit the wires, complete with unbelievable stories of being abducted from hotel rooms and spraying of Champagne.
Honestly at that point I was ready to cut bait with Javon. He was partying like a rap-star instead of getting ready for an OTA that week, or attending an event in William’s honor. He was once again making the bad decisions that he is becoming known for.
Lucky to be alive, and miraculously not suffering from any career threatening injury, Javon showed up to training camp ready to compete…physically. And here is where I believe the real issue lies. Javon has all the physical tools that he needs to be a dangerous WR for the Raiders. What he lacks is the mental fortitude to be an NFL receiver.
The report that Javon wanted to retire casts many of his actions since the days in Green Bay in a new light for me. The truth is, many NFL players don’t play for love of the game. I know that is a hard pill to swallow for NFL fans, many of whom would give up their right nut to suit up one day in the NFL. Now the lack of love is usually attributed to the big-nasties on the line, who have been pushed into football since child hood since they were bigger and stronger than their classmates. But limited the pool of players who play for money only to guys over 300 lbs is foolish.
Javon put up 1 big season in Green Bay and then looked for his payday. NFL careers are short, so I really don’t fault him for wanting to get paid, but the way he went about it, publicly calling out the Packers struck me as wrong. The fact that his teammates (Brett Favre in particular) came out on the side of management was confounding. Players rarely speak out against fellow players, unless there is something more there.
After his short hold out, Javon lasted 1 game before going down with injury. An off-season trade to Denver seemed to give Javon the fresh start he needed. And he did produce that 1st season in Denver. Then things turned sour in Denver also. Walker held Williams in his arms as he died. He returned to Denver and was no longer the clear cut #1, a young receiver was pushing him for that featured role. Then the injury bug returned.
I believe that Walker has lost whatever love for the game he ever had. He has gotten a bad taste of the business side in Green Bay; his teammates have turned on him in two separate cities. He has twice seen the bad side of what the NFL spotlight has to offer.
Who’s love wouldn’t be tested by what Javon has been through? Would you still love the game if it had cost you as much as it has cost Javon?
I’m not trying to start a pity party for Walker, I still say that one needs to have the wherewithal not to put themselves into a strangers car in Vegas, that his actions that night were inviting trouble. His decision-making has been questionable since the Green Bay days. But if you look at his decisions to date, is it that hard to think that he has placed the blame for what has happened to him on football? Could he think that his success in the game has been more curse than blessing?
That is why I question the Raiders desire to talk him out of retirement. I don’t see this year’s Raiders being the kind of team that can help Walker rise above and rediscover a love for the game. The Raiders have too many soap opera storylines floating around, to give Walker the support he needs. Walker needs some time as a role player, where little would be expected of him. He needs his Plunket year(s) on the bench where the mistakes of the past can fade. Right now the weight of the Raiders expectations for the passing game rest squarely on Walker’s shoulders, I believe he will crumble under the pressure at this point, hell he already is.
I have developed some sort of sympathy for Walker over the last few weeks. Something I didn’t expect from my cynical ass. But even with my newfound sympathy, I see no reason for the Raiders not to grant Walker his wish, and let him walk away from the game. There is too much money tied up in Walker’s contract for a player who has no love for the game. A Larry Brown type signing is the last thing this team needs as it struggles to return to respectability.
Al, If I am right about his mental state, Javon will come to you again this off-season with his desire to leave, I urge you to accept. Cut your losses. I know you have resurrected many a player’s career. But those players had the fire; they just lacked the proper outlet. Walker has the outlet, but no fire, and that fire is hard to reignite when you have nothing to play for. Walker has the money, he has the fame, and the NFL has nothing to offer him. There is no spark for Javon in Oakland as things stand.
Showing posts with label know it all comintary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label know it all comintary. Show all posts
Monday, August 4, 2008
Friday, March 14, 2008
BPS vs. Need
So you are an NFL GM and your team has just gone “on the clock” in the NFL draft. Do you take the best player available (BPA) or do you fill a need? That is the key question that every team struggles with each and every draft. Well maybe not every team, some teams seem to always go BPA regardless of need (Matt Millen, we are looking at you) others seem to try and fill needs, value be damned (Al, kicker round 1?).
Personally I’m a big believer in maximizing the value of your picks. It means you have to look deeper than BPA and filling needs, you have to take into account the value of the pick and the size of the contract that a selection in that slot commands along with your team needs and the player rankings.
This years draft gives us a prime example of how maximizing the value of the selection would govern whom you should pick. Since I’m a Raiders fan we are going to use the #4 slot for this exercise.
Many draft boards have Darren McFadden as the BPA. Due the needs of the teams with the 1st three picks chances are McFadden will be there when the Raiders pick. The Raiders running backs are a pedestrian group with no real game breaker among them. So McFadden would seem like a great choice.
Not when you take value into account. If you are going to maximize the value you get out of the draft, you 1st have to set your draft board based on how players fit the system your team runs. With the Raiders zone cut scheme the running back and offensive line positions are not places you look to address with 1st round draft picks, at least not top 5 picks. You need a RB with good vision and the ability to take what the play gives him. A player, like McFadden, who looks to bounce outside every play and turn every play into a big gainer, is going to struggle until he learns the system.
Next you have to take into account the economic impact of your selection if you are going to maximize the value of the pick. Running backs whose impact lasts beyond 4 seasons are rare. A top 5 pick is a commitment of six years at franchise player money to an unproven player. If the Raiders were to select McFadden with the 4th overall selection they will be making him immediately among the 5 highest paid running backs in the league.
Then you look at your team needs. For the Raiders, IMO, it goes something like this:
WR
DT
OT
DE
RB
You can swap the DE and DT slots depending on where Tommy Kelly lines up, which to me means that either one could be made #2 based on the fact that whichever you address, you can move Kelly to the other. With RB being #5 on my list, that means that you can add depth here later, and not worry about trying to find an every down back in the top 5.
Finally you look at the value of your pick. The trade value chart was a great tool when Jimmy Johnson developed it years ago. However, the incredible escalation of the contracts awarded to high draft picks has made it obsolete. There is a movement in the league to come up with a new chart to facilitate trades in the top 10, but I don’t think that you can come up with a chart that accurately addresses the draft from year to year.
This year there are five or six top prospects, then a wide gulf where the value isn’t there until late in the 1st round. But from the 2nd to the end of the 3rd there is great value in the draft. In my mind you have to adjust the chart to take this into account along with the financial aspect. This means the chart has to be adjusted every year based on how the talent in the draft lays out. Some years there are 8-10 top prospects, with little value after round 2, some years there are 2-3 top prospects with huge value in the 3rd and 4th round. But just try to get 32 different personnel staffs to agree on this every year.
Once you determine the value of your pick, and that of the later picks in the draft you can evaluate if trading down is an option for you. Using the established value chart, the Raiders would look foolish to trade down with Dallas for their two 1st round picks and a 3rd. That would be like leaving 2 - 3rd rounders on the table, but when you take the value of players available this year and economics into account, that is not a bad trade.
So you are back as the Raiders GM, the top 3 picks have come and gone, the Longs, Chris and Jake, and Glenn Dorsey are off the board. You are about to guarantee a player 28 - 30 million dollars. How do you maximize the value? Do you make a RB that doesn’t fit your system one of the top paid players at his position? Do you make a DT that duplicates the skill sets of two guys who are already on your team the 2nd highest paid player at his position in the league (Behind Dorsey)? Do you select a DE who can terrorize QB’s, but will need to be taken out on run downs? Or do you take a deal that will get widely criticized by the talking heads to move down?
If its me, I’m praying that Chris slips, hoping that someone doesn’t jump up for Gholston and planning to take advantage of the fact that this is a draft with little DT depth and teams will be desperate to fill that need, with the outside chance that Jerry Jones is crazy enough to believe that an Arkansas boy is the last piece to his Super Bowl puzzle. Talking heads be damned.
Personally I’m a big believer in maximizing the value of your picks. It means you have to look deeper than BPA and filling needs, you have to take into account the value of the pick and the size of the contract that a selection in that slot commands along with your team needs and the player rankings.
This years draft gives us a prime example of how maximizing the value of the selection would govern whom you should pick. Since I’m a Raiders fan we are going to use the #4 slot for this exercise.
Many draft boards have Darren McFadden as the BPA. Due the needs of the teams with the 1st three picks chances are McFadden will be there when the Raiders pick. The Raiders running backs are a pedestrian group with no real game breaker among them. So McFadden would seem like a great choice.
Not when you take value into account. If you are going to maximize the value you get out of the draft, you 1st have to set your draft board based on how players fit the system your team runs. With the Raiders zone cut scheme the running back and offensive line positions are not places you look to address with 1st round draft picks, at least not top 5 picks. You need a RB with good vision and the ability to take what the play gives him. A player, like McFadden, who looks to bounce outside every play and turn every play into a big gainer, is going to struggle until he learns the system.
Next you have to take into account the economic impact of your selection if you are going to maximize the value of the pick. Running backs whose impact lasts beyond 4 seasons are rare. A top 5 pick is a commitment of six years at franchise player money to an unproven player. If the Raiders were to select McFadden with the 4th overall selection they will be making him immediately among the 5 highest paid running backs in the league.
Then you look at your team needs. For the Raiders, IMO, it goes something like this:
WR
DT
OT
DE
RB
You can swap the DE and DT slots depending on where Tommy Kelly lines up, which to me means that either one could be made #2 based on the fact that whichever you address, you can move Kelly to the other. With RB being #5 on my list, that means that you can add depth here later, and not worry about trying to find an every down back in the top 5.
Finally you look at the value of your pick. The trade value chart was a great tool when Jimmy Johnson developed it years ago. However, the incredible escalation of the contracts awarded to high draft picks has made it obsolete. There is a movement in the league to come up with a new chart to facilitate trades in the top 10, but I don’t think that you can come up with a chart that accurately addresses the draft from year to year.
This year there are five or six top prospects, then a wide gulf where the value isn’t there until late in the 1st round. But from the 2nd to the end of the 3rd there is great value in the draft. In my mind you have to adjust the chart to take this into account along with the financial aspect. This means the chart has to be adjusted every year based on how the talent in the draft lays out. Some years there are 8-10 top prospects, with little value after round 2, some years there are 2-3 top prospects with huge value in the 3rd and 4th round. But just try to get 32 different personnel staffs to agree on this every year.
Once you determine the value of your pick, and that of the later picks in the draft you can evaluate if trading down is an option for you. Using the established value chart, the Raiders would look foolish to trade down with Dallas for their two 1st round picks and a 3rd. That would be like leaving 2 - 3rd rounders on the table, but when you take the value of players available this year and economics into account, that is not a bad trade.
So you are back as the Raiders GM, the top 3 picks have come and gone, the Longs, Chris and Jake, and Glenn Dorsey are off the board. You are about to guarantee a player 28 - 30 million dollars. How do you maximize the value? Do you make a RB that doesn’t fit your system one of the top paid players at his position? Do you make a DT that duplicates the skill sets of two guys who are already on your team the 2nd highest paid player at his position in the league (Behind Dorsey)? Do you select a DE who can terrorize QB’s, but will need to be taken out on run downs? Or do you take a deal that will get widely criticized by the talking heads to move down?
If its me, I’m praying that Chris slips, hoping that someone doesn’t jump up for Gholston and planning to take advantage of the fact that this is a draft with little DT depth and teams will be desperate to fill that need, with the outside chance that Jerry Jones is crazy enough to believe that an Arkansas boy is the last piece to his Super Bowl puzzle. Talking heads be damned.
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