Week 2 Thoughts

I keep meaning to write posts for this damn blog. But life gets busy. I mean I started a series of posts on why the Raiders would go 16-0. And it would have had me looking like Nostradamus, had Vince Young imploded and been benched one week earlier. But the series remains on my flash drive, seen only by me.

So lets keep things short and simple. I want to write about 2 things, the Raiders and my attempts to get back into shape. So this post will concentrate on the former, and hopefully my next post will be on the later.

The win vs. St. Louis.

1 – Thank god for Jason Campbell

I know this goes squarely against the grain of the general consensus of Raider fans right now. But, had the Raiders not swung the trade for Campbell, I have to believe that JaMarcus would have been the Raiders starter going into week 2. (Remember Grads missed most of the offseason and the start of camp with a torn pec). Even if Grads had started against the Titans, I have trouble believing he would have made it out of that game healthy. Meaning that we would have been treated to the return of JaMarcus to Oakland yesterday. Thanks for the win Jason.

2 – Tom Cable is ahead of the curve on the Oline

Once again, this will be greeted with a collective WTF by the majority of Raider fans. But hear me out. There are two areas of an NFL team where the players have not become specialized. The quarterback (with the exception of teams running a Wildcat) and the offensive line. I believe that within the next 5 years, we will see specialist on the offensive line. Long yardage tackles, who specialize at pass blocking, but suck at run blocking. And their short yardage counterparts.

Lets face it, Mario Henderson is truly lacking when it comes to pass blocking, but has shown beastly flashes in the run game. If Veldheer can come into his own as a pass blocker, the platoon at LT could be a reality in Oakland.

Would it be better to have an Ogden or Jones at LT who can do it all, sure, but those guys are so rare, I think that the reality of the NFL will soon require platoons where possible on the line.

Veldehere is an intriguing prospect to start this movement with in Oakland. He represents a signifigant upgrade at center in run blocking, but has trouble with the blitz pick-up, especially in pass-pro. He is at least Henderson’s equal at pass blocking right now, at that is with three years less experience and a DII background.

Bruce Cambell is equally intriguing in this manner. He could be a great pulling guard, but his body says OT. Right now he is backing up at RG, but the day could soon come that he is a part of the right side rotation.

The key is getting both of these players up to par at multiple positions. Which is at least a season away. But looking forward to next season:

Base/Run downs:

Henderson, Gallery, Veldheer, Campbell, Walker

Pass Situations

Veldheer, Gallery, Satele, TBD, Campbell

Not a complete picture, but don’t be surprised when you start seeing specialists on the line. And don’t be surprised if the substitutions become more frequent in Oakland as the season progresses.

3 – Raiders Busting out all over

Some Raiders that have had the bust lable attached to them seem to be coming into their own.

Darren McFadden has looked like an NFL running back two weeks in a row. His vision is still questionable, and he takes too long to get up to top speed. But he is finally running hard and not falling at 1^st contact. A huge improvement.

Darrius Hayward-Bey is catching balls, not the deep home-run ball we all hoped for. But he seems to be running better routs and getting open. And when the quarterback hits him in stride, the next hit isn’t the ball meeting the ground.

Stanford Routt only took five seasons, but he is playing well at the target corner across from Asomugha. Sure he isn’t perfect, but he looks like a player (and ignore those who claim he got burnt on that long Tennessee TD, that was a zone and he was the only one who recognized the coverage bust, that is why he was the only guy near the ball).

Michael Huff has looked like a decent safety so far this season. The preseason looked like more of the same, but I can’t fault a safety who is repeatedly the 1^st guy to the running back after the front 7 falls flat on their face. Decent isn’t all-pro, but if the front 7 can continue to apply pressure, he could shed the Fluff label.

4 – Gradkowski just gets it done

But there is more to it than the team getting a spark from Grads. The playcalling was appreciably different with Grads, shorter routs, more timing, more taking what was there than trying to force things.

So what is the difference, I think it is the coaches putting too much stock into what they see in practice. I think Campbell is much more confident with that Red Jersey on, and who wouldn’t be behind Oakland’s O-line. That goes to shit once the real bullets start flying.

Gradkowski is equally limited in practice and in the game. Meaning that the gameplan based on what he shows in practice matches what he produces Sunday. It isn’t pretty, but it is effective.

5 – Get healthy soon

Gallery, Bush, Seymore and Schilens all should be major contributors to this team. And if the Raiders want to have any hope of 8-8 they need to be on the field. The Raiders stand a chance without them against a pathetic Arizona squad this week. But need at least Gallery and Seymore back to have a prayer against Houston.

Playing Chicken with Richard

Richard Seymour is a Raider…or he could be soon…or he might not be. Depending on which side of the debate of the merits of this trade you stand on, you are either elated, or disappointed at this point, and your feelings have most likely changed 10 times in the last three days.

IMO, if the Raiders can sign Seymour to a long-term deal, it is a fair trade for both sides. And most would agree, if they can get by the intellectual dishonesty being spewed by the Boys at Bristol, more on that another time, if the trade goes through.

The thing is, I no longer believe that this is a high stakes game of chicken between Seymour and the Raiders. I think this is a game between the Patriots and Seymour, with the Raiders just willingly going along with the charade, with the hopes that they can reap the rewards should the trains collide.

The leaks of strange information the past few days are what have lead me to this conclusion. Cable’s slip that there are financial issues to deal with in New England, the reports today that Seymour though he was close to signing an extension to stay in New England. Then you take into account that Seymour is the one player who, along with his agent, Eugene Parker, has actually won a stare down with Belichick in the past, and you have the ingredients for something different.

My theory is that Seymour and the Patriots were in discussions on an extension, and things were not going as well as Seymour thought. The Pats, tired of dealing with the unreasonable demands of Parker issued a take it or leave it deal, and Parker thought they were bluffing.

The Patriots then put together a deal with Oakland to send Seymour there for the 1st round pick in 2011, they also gave the Raiders the parameters of the deal that Parker and Seymour were looking for, and the Raiders found it acceptable.

The Patriots have flipped the table and called Parker and Seymour’s bluff.

“You say if you can’t get this deal here, you’ll take it somewhere else, well take it in Oakland”.

Now it is a full-fledged game of chicken between the Patriots and Seymour. Will Seymour blink 1st and accept the deal the Pats have on the table? Will Seymour take the offer in Oakland and report?

One of these sides is going to lose; if Seymour goes to Oakland the Patriots loose a key clog in their attempt to get another ring, a 2011 pick is no help to the team this year, and the window of opportunity in the NFL is too short to count on anything that far down the line.

If Seymour returns to New England at the reduced rate, yet another player will have lost the stare down with Belichick. His last chance at a big payday will be gone, sure he will be well paid, but he could have had more.

And where does this leave Oakland, if Seymour doesn’t come, well the fans will be let down, but the team will be about where it was before, a 6 to 8 win team needing line help. If he does come, the Raiders will be a 7 to 9 win team, needing a little less line help, but with less amo down the line

Cable Makes A Rookie Mistake

I’d say it was his 1st big mistake as a rookie head coach, but I’m sure some one will bring up breaking jaws, or sticking to long with Kwame, or taking a job in Oakland. But the move that Cable made last week shows that he is new at this whole scheduling thing.

There is a reason that the vast majority of teams broke camp about a week prior to the Raiders leaving Napa. Most teams want to simulate a game week in the days leading up to their 3rd preseason game. Installation, game planning and walkthroughs, all done in the same manner as what will happen in the regular season.

Cable may have run practices, and installed a game plan the same way that he will during the season, but there was one major difference. The players didn’t go home to their wives, kids, girlfriend and strippers each night. Instead they were sequestered in Napa at the Marriott.

Then, following the final walkthrough, Cable released the inmates from the asylum. If you have ever gone through a football camp, you know the feeling of freedom you have after being under lock and key for weeks. Sure you have a couple hours a day to yourself each day, but for the most part you are little more than a prisoner, one who has to work out until you puke.

So it was not the least bit surprising Saturday that the Raiders looked and played like they had hangovers. Chances are many of them did. As noted by recent Raider addition Greg Ellis, who chastised his teammates for being unprofessional.

True it was unprofessional, and lead to being embarrassed on televisions all across the county, but it should have been far from unexpected. This is one of the youngest teams in the NFL, and has little on field leadership. Cable’s scheduling of camp set them up to fail, and fail they did, in a most embarrassing fashion.

One can only hope that Cable knew exactly what he was doing; after all he has been around football his entire adult life, as both a player and coach. Maybe, just Maybe, having the players embarrass themselves was the point. It’s better that they do so in the 3rd preseason game, than in week 1 on national TV, as they have in 3 of the last 4 years.

Is JR Busting out, or just Busting

I should be the last person to criticize someone for being a little out of shape, I’m not obese, but I sure could stand some time in the gym. But what I should do, and what I will do are two different things. So why not blast JaMarcus Russell for being a fat ass.

Yeah, that was the aptly nicknamed JaDummy telling reporters after the 1st day of practice “I am a little heavy, but I am not 300 pounds like you all said the last time.” Well congratulations JaMarcus, you aren’t pushing for the starting LT spot this season; that is quite an accomplishment.

I know what the Russell apologists will say, this is only the 1st day of camp, there is plenty of time to get into shape. Problem is, this was the same thing they said when those party pictures showed up a couple months back, same thing they said last season, same thing they said when he was drafted.

It is becoming increasingly clear that JR just doesn’t get it. His coach, Tom Cable, publicly called him out a couple times during the off-season, and he missed the 1st week and a half of OTA’s. Now I know his mother had surgery, but how many of you would miss a week and a half of work due to a preplanned surgery for a relative.

He made the gesture of inviting his WR’s to come down to Louisiana to work with him for a week, a move that was generally praised throughout the Raider Nation as a sign that he was turning the corner. But whatever credit he would have gained with this writer was more than negated by the reports that after doing so, Russell cut out of OTA’s a day early.

Not that that should have come as a surprise to those who follow the Raiders closely. Thomas Howard was interviewed in the middle of OTA’s by Sirius NFL radio and refused to comment on how often JaMarcus was attending. Not something you do if your team leader is there every day.

Sure there have been some positive quotes as well, as Michael Bush has stated that JR has much better control of the huddle, and Lewis Murphy has compared Russell’s on field demeanor in practice to Tim Tebow. But unfortunately the news coming out of Russell’s passing camp send a different message.

At this time, it appears that only 4 WR’s attended Russell’s camp, of them, only Murphy appears to have a chance to make the team. Now Walker and DHB had health issues, but of the remaining players projected to make the roster (Higgens, Schilens, Miller etc…) no one seemed to be able to make the time to work with their anointed leader. Hell, Schilens was able to make the time to go play catch with Jeff Garcia, but not Russell.

Now this could say something about the dedication of those players, and how serious they are about winning as Raiders, but I think it says more about how Russell is seen by his teammates. To me it says that Russell has lost the respect of a good portion of this team, if he ever had it to begin with.

Look around the league, the premier quarterbacks all seem to get in extra work with their receivers, be it McNabb bringing everyone down to Arizona, or the Mannings spending extra time in their respective cities. What is the difference between these guys and JR? When they say lets get together, their teammates jump. When JaMarcus says it, they are free to ask, why weren’t the OTA’s a good time to get this work done?

That to me is the worst news to come out of this off-season for the Raiders, if JaMarcus has lost the attention of this team, it will take a hell of a lot of effort and dedication for him to get it back. Problem is, JaMarcus has always seemed content to get by on his incredible physical ability going back to college. Dedication and effort seem to be a foreign concept to him.

A man once said “Fat, Drunk and Stupid is no way to go through life”, and while I may try to prove this wrong, it is not the moto that I want to see the starting quarterback of the team I live and die with in the Fall try to prove wrong.

Other Stuff

OH NO, DHB dropped the 1st ball thrown to him in camp, THE SKY IS FALLING.

Damn, some people are so eager to label this guy a bust, lets let this guy get his feet wet before we crucify him. Take a look back at some of the great receivers (Rice and Brown would be a good start) few light up the league from day 1. I’m not saying that DHB is hall of fame bound, but it is a little early for the Troy Williamson comparisons.

Cutting a 6th round pick

Sure cutting Stryker Sulak before camp even opened was a little strange. And wasting any pick pisses me off a bit. But I have a feeling that more draft picks than normal will not make their team’s final 53, the Raiders just started the process earlier than most.

The thing is, most teams have plenty of Cap room this offseason. Where in past years a vet would get the ax before a rookie for financial reasons, team will be able to have more experienced players make up the back end of their roster now. It should make for better special teams play across the league, which is a good thing for football fans.

Goodbye Andrew Walter

I’ve always felt a little bad about the way Walter’s career with the Raiders has gone down. From being thrown out to the wolves under Shell, to being relegated to back-up behind Culpepper and McCown, even if he looked better to me on the field. It seems like he just never got a fair shake.

Well, with DHB signing, the Raiders made the long awaited roster move of cutting Walter. Why this couldn’t have been done months ago, when he could have gotten a full off-season in with his new team, is beyond me, and a black mark on the Raiders. I hope he catches on somewhere else and does well, at least when he isn’t facing the Raiders.

My guess is that he hooks back up with his old College coach, Dirk Cutter, in Jacksonville, and puts some real pressure on David Garrard.

HOF here I come

I’m sure it will be a couple years until I am inducted into the media wing for my outstanding writing, but I will be making my 1st visit to the Hall of Fame this weekend. That’s what the lovely Mrs. Brick gets for leaving the planning of our weekend up to me.

Vick in Silver and Black?

et’s start this posting off right, with a hearty Fuck You to Rodger Goodell. See I was putting the finishing touches on a piece about Mike Vick yesterday when the news broke that Goodell had conditionally reinstated the quasi-QB. So that piece just gets scrapped, no reason to belabor that point anymore.

Instead, lets look at what Vick could do for the Raiders. I know, as a Raider fan I am tired of the team being linked to every malcontent and diva that hits the market, but while the press focuses on Washington, Miami and New England as potential destinations for Vick, why not examine the Pro’s and Con(Vicks) of Mike in Silver and Black.

Pro’s

The Raiders have been without a True Playmaker for Years

This has been a constant theme in my writing. The Raiders have lacked anyone who forces Defenses to alter their game plan since Moss gave up on the team. Sure Nnamdi takes away one WR, but the reads remain the same for the QB. No one on either side of the ball affects coverage or protections. McFadden has the potential to, but has yet to show it consistently.

If he can come back at anywhere near his previous form, Vick would force a LB to spy him at minimum. That takes one defender out of the equation, which is all you need. If the WR’s or McFadden can develop, this will create openings across the field.

Now, I recognize that there is a huge question mark when it comes to his current skill level, but the possible reward here is huge.

Russell has yet to Prove himself to be anything but Vick without the wheels

I’m in danger of being labeled a hater when it comes to Russell, but I take the hater label as a badge of honor, it means the other person can’t refute anything you have to say, so they use the hater crutch.

Face it; even with the progress Russell showed at the end of last season, he has yet to prove himself as anything other than a cannon armed, inaccurate, and slow to read defenses QB. Which is pretty much how you would sum up Vick prior to his suspension, with the added factor of Vick’s scrambling ability.

I’m not advocating giving up on Russell for Vick, but Vick would be an excellent compliment to Russell on the depth chart, as you could prepare virtually the same game plan for both. Where as with the current back-ups (Garcia and Gradkowski) you have to adjust to their weaker arms.

He will come cheap

Just look at the Franchise numbers to see what the current going rate is on game changing players. It is a steep price to pay; especially when there is no way of knowing if the guy will produce for your franchise.

Vick won’t get anywhere near franchise money, but he will get much more than the NFL minimum that most columnists seem to be projecting. Why, because the potential to be a game breaker is still there. Now potential gets coaches fired, but when have the Raiders been averse to firing coaches.

Wildcat

Damn, I hate writing that word. The media has blown the whole wildcat thing so far out of proportion. Oh yeah, the Dolphins were the 1st team to have a running option get a direct snap. Tell that to Kordell Stewart, or Randel-El, or Cunningham, hell Darren McFadden lined up at QB in the preseason last year reviving his WildHog roots. But no, the Dolphins unleashed this previously unknown formation on the NFL.

But it brings me to what I see as the best reason to bring in Vick; The versatility that it would afford the offense. With Vick on the field, he, McFadden and Bush would all be threats to run or throw on any play (remember Bush played QB in HS).

This is the kind of thing I want to see in an offense, the ability to put a defense on its heels. The Raiders have been trying to do this with guys who stretch the field for years, and I’m not advocating going away from that, but just adding another element, remember Vick can get the ball down the field, the vertical game won’t go anywhere, it will just have more going on underneath. The more options you have, the more the defense has to account for, and the more likely they are to fuck up.


Con’s

He may well be done

One of my points in the aborted posting from yesterday was that quite simply, I think that Vick will be out of the NFL in three years. He has already missed two seasons in what should have been the prime of his career; the uncertainty regarding the length of his suspension will prevent teams from putting too much time into him this season. He will be nothing more than a limited package player this season. Meaning it will be three full seasons of Vick not being a NFL QB before he competes for a starting job next season.

Chances are, this means his career is as good as over. He was already limited when it comes to QB skills, now he has missed two years of training, Mike being anything more than a gimmick player is a long shot.

PETA

Oh they will protest, they will be at the training camp of whatever team signs him, and they will be at the games; Anything to get themselves on TV. The Raider’s previously relatively calm off season will suddenly revert to the circus tents of the last few years.

Personally, I could give a fuck about PETA, they serve no real purpose, and there are few groups I look on with more disgust. And I have donated to my local animal shelters, love my dog, and think what Vick did was inhuman. But kowtowing to these nut jobs in any way pisses me off. The fact that Goodell even met with these assholes to discuss Vick has made me lose some respect for him.

As far as the Raiders, they are used to distractions, I may not wish another one for them, but this could serve to take some of the heat off of Russell and the much-maligned draft picks of this year.

Where does he fit / Who do you cut

This is a tough one, who do you cut to make room for a part time player? The Raiders just don’t have the depth anywhere to take a chance on Vick. They need three RB’s due to the inability of any of them to stay healthy. The WR’s are young and need time to develop. The Defense needs all the help it can get.

You can say that you would make him the 3rd QB, but that would make him ineligible on game day. It may be the 3rd QB who gets the pink slip, but someone else would have to be inactive on Sunday.

IMO, it would be a WR getting the pink slip. For the simple reason that the team could get by with 4 on the active roster thanks to the versatility of McFadden and Miller. Both of them could split out as a WR when needed. But who do you cut? You can cross Bey, Schillens, Higgens and hopefully Murphy right off the list. Can you afford the cap hit to cut Walker?

Vick will miss the start of the Season

The Raiders start the season with three straight against divisional foes. Having a winning record in division has to be this teams primary goal, as they are still a year or two away from competing against the premier teams in the league.

Signing Vick, when he will miss these games, will do nothing towards achieving that goal. He could provide a nice mid-season boost, but if the Raiders once again fail to come out of the gates hot, it may well be too little too late.

When I add it all up in my mind, I am advocating something I never thought I would. I would like to see the Raiders be the team that gives Vick his 2nd chance. I have written before that I think he should be able to earn a 2nd chance (he deserves nothing) but just not with the Raiders. Well I am officially softening my stance.

IMO, the Pro’s to signing Vick slightly outweigh the Con’s. Due to the potential more than anything else. But there is one other factor that does weigh in this equation for me. The NFL players who have spoken up, have come out strongly supporting Vick’s right to play again. While the media would crucify Al for the move, it would be huge for winning the hearts and minds of the NFL’s players. And with the backlash the organization has experience from former players such as Worthless Sapp, the team could use the positive vibes among the players. I know it is a weak stance, but it may be just enough to sway some potential free agents.

So how would I go about this? Three year, incentive laden deal, if he can push JR to the bench, he would have earned a starters salary, and the contract should reflect this. It would have to be made clear that he is being signed as a limited package player in year 1, the #2 for year two, with the potential to fight for that starting spot.

He would have to be on board for learning the receiver tree, as the best fit for him at this time is being on the field with JR at the same time. Along with McFadden and Bush at other times. He has to be more than a decoy for the defense to respect him when he is on the field.

Can he do all of this, I have no idea, but if he can, I would like to see him do it in Silver and Black.

WORST DRAFT EVER

According to the Kipers of the world, I should be posting about how I am a beaten man today. The draft is a holiday on my calendar, and that Grinch, Al Davis, stole the tree and all the presents for Raiders fans. The Raiders must be the stupidest team in the NFL, since they didn’t draft according to the experts boards, they reached, and passed up can’t miss players for boom or bust types. Yep, according to them, I should be here ready to turn in my Silver and Black.

I’m guessing if you have read this site before, you know what my answer to that is…

FUCK THAT

Sure I have been expounding on how teams need to maximize the value they get in the draft. Hell, I have spent hours on putting together a chart, and explaining that chart right here. But as a Raider fan, I had no expectation of the Raiders doing that in this years draft, I may be dumb, but I’m not stupid. Al hasn’t hired me yet, I’m sure things will be different once he brings me into the draft room.

So, all that out of the way, lets take a look at the Raider’s 1st day draft picks, I will talk value here, but there are some outside factors to take into consideration, which I will also try to address.

Round 1, Pick #7 – Darrius Heyward-Bey

Right off the bat, the Raiders are the laughing stock of the NFL. I was only watching the NFLN’s coverage, but have read more than enough about BSPN’s coverage. Heyward-Bey, with Crabtree and Macklin still on the board, what the fuck were the Raiders thinking.

From a Value perspective, the pick stinks. Bey was the 3rd ranked WR, I have a hard time believing that any other team would have selected him before 20. This is a classic trade down position if you are drafting for value. Raider apologists keep harping on the “fact” that there was no one to trade down with; Cable claimed in a press conference that the Raiders were reluctant to trade down, since there were teams trying to trade up ahead of the Raiders to grab Bey.

I’m not sure I am completely buying either claim. With all the teams needing an OT, I can’t see Monroe not having enough value to garner a 1 and a 3, but we’ll never know for sure since he went next. As for other teams looking to jump up for Bey? With everyone reportedly looking to trade down, this one is hard to swallow as well.

There was better value to be had, but it is hard to say just how much. The same factors preventing other teams from trading out of the top 10, also affected the Raiders. At some point you have to man up, and play the cards you have been dealt.

Now from a BPA perspective, it all depends on how you rank your board. I could care less who the Kiper’s of the world feel is the best player at any given position. Because, truth be told, they are wrong as often as they are right. Lets think back to some recent drafts, and how the players were ranked, or hyped:

Cutler was ranked behind Leinert and Young
Gallery was a 10 year lock at LT
Jones-Drew wasn’t mentioned in the same breath as Bush
Charles Rogers was ranked ahead of Andre Johnson
Mike Williams was a future HOF WR

I could go on and on, but I won’t. The “expert” rankings of guys like Kiper are great for adding a talking point to the coverage, and handing out instant grades afterwards. But in the end are meaningless. If these guys were really such great scouts, they would be working in the NFL. Instead they stay on the sidelines, with their bad hair, and one size fits all rankings.

One size fits all rankings, now there is an interesting point, glad I thought of it, and it fits what we are talking about to a T.

What do I mean by one size fits all rankings, that’s easy. Kiper comes up with his big board of prospects. Grades them, ranks them, and then rips teams that don’t select players where he sees them.

No consideration is given to scheme, personnel fit. Sure he looks at need, as in the Raiders need a WR, Crabtree is the best WR, the Raiders should take Crabtree. Doesn’t matter that what Crabtree’s skill set lends itself to is a short to intermediate control the ball through the air attack. Not what the Raiders run. In the world of one size fits all rankings, he is the best, so he is the best for the Raiders.

Thing is, the NFL is not a one size fits all league. If it were, there would be no free agent busts. DeAngelo Hall would look just as good in the Raiders man press, as he does in the Redskins off man/ zones.

So that all brings us back to the Raiders, every team ranks the players based on their scouting, their criteria and how they fit their scheme. There is no question that the Raiders had Bey ranked as the best WR on their board. He was the first WR taken in the draft. The Kiper’s will laugh it off as Davis’ fascination with the stop-watch rearing it’s ugly head again. But there are other factors that should be looked at.

Bey played in a pro-style offense at Maryland. He may not have had much pro level talent around him, but there are three key factors that separate him from Crabtree and Maclin.

1 – He blocked in the run game. Bey is given excellent marks in this regard. I have seen his blocking compared to Hines Ward in a couple places. In a run oriented system like the Raiders, this is invaluable.

2 – Playing in a pro style offense, he faced defenses similar to those he will see at the next level. No spread out defenses to be seen here, take away the #1 WR with rolled coverage, press at the line. The Texas Tech offense is designed to defeat this and take the defense out of its comfort zone. Bey did not get this advantage.

3 – Ran a complete pass tree, perhaps the most important of the three. Of the top WR’s, only Hicks in North Carolina can say the same. Bey spent most of his time running the deep stuff, but that is what the Raiders are going to ask him to do. The learning curve has been made significantly less daunting.

Add in that Bey is the ideal combination of Crabtree’s size (actually a little bigger) and Maclin’s speed (actually a little faster), and to just use the one size fits all rankings, and declare that the Raiders made a mistake selecting Bey, IMO, is in itself a reach.

So, while I swore at my TV when the Raiders selected Hayward-Bey at 7 instead of Monroe, Raji or even Orakpo or trading down, after I took a step back. I am satisfied with the pick, not my 1st choice, but as the draft unfolded I felt better and better about it.

So why did I come away feeling better about it. Easy, look at the WR’s available when the Raiders were back on the clock at 40. Mohamed Massaquoi was the best WR still on the board. I had WR ranked as the Raiders number 1 need coming into the draft. Had they come away with Massaquoi and Louis Murphy, I would be very pessimistic about the Raiders having the horses to get JaMarcus to the next level.

So that brings us to the 2nd round.

Right off the bat, the Raiders do the smart thing and trade down. If we take Cable’s press conference at face value, Mitchell was the pick, he was on the board at 40, but the Raiders read the tea leaves right, and got themselves some extra amo later in the draft. Just what this team needed. But at this point, I don’t know who the target is, I just feel better about having a couple more tickets to this year’s lottery.

Then the Raiders send the card up to the table and the announcement comes over the loud speaker:

Round 2, Pick #49 – Michael Mitchell, S

Queue the laugh track from the talking heads. Brick commences swearing at his TV, the lovely Mrs. Brick asks why I am watching this if I am just going to get angry.

God Damn, I knew that Mitchell was a classic Davis pick, he fits the Raiders hard hitting secondary image like a glove. I expected the Raiders to take a flyer on him at some point, but not this early. My slowly growing warm and fuzy feeling with Bey and the trade down for picks was squashed.

I fumed about this for a couple hours, then the reports started to come out. Mitchell claims that the Bears had told him that he would be their pick at 49. Funny, I had missed the fact that the Bears had traded out of their one 1st day spot shortly after the Raiders took Mitchell. But that was just a coincidence…right?

No, the Chicago tribune verifies Mitchell’s story. Holly shit, the Raiders did play this just right. They came within two picks of missing their target. They took the player they wanted at just about the optimum position. That is Value, screw the one size fits all charts, screw the talking heads (credit does go to Mayock for eating crow the next day). Rarely do you get this much info on the inside of the 2 day poker game that is the draft, but damn it feels good when you do, and you team just played their hand perfectly.

In the end, I have to say that I am pretty happy with the way the Raiders handled the 1st day of the draft, all things considered. Two players, who filled a need, fit the scheme and seem to have the work ethic that Cable craves.

Sure it sucks to listen to the callers on NFL radio blast the Raiders. Suck to listen to Adam Schein (well it always sucks to listen to Schein) give the Raiders a “G” since “F” is too high of a grade. But you know what, if there is anything that has proven true about the draft year after year. It is this; nobody knows how these teams did for sure for a couple years. Anyone who claims to know any different is a blowhard.

So for now, I welcome Heyward-Bey and Mitchell to the Silver and Black. Keep that chip on your shoulder, and use it to prove once again that the best use for Kiper’s head is holding up that strange hair, and that the hot air coming out of guys like Schein should be filling balloons for tourists somewhere, not polluting the otherwise outstanding NFL radio airwaves.

QB & OT to drive the draft

Taking a break from the draft value chart today, to look at how some recent player moves could affect the draft, and how this potentially sets up the Raiders.

There are two positions driving this year’s draft, and it should come as no surprise that they are QB and OT. The face of the franchise and the guy who protects his back, there is a reason that NFL teams place a premium on these two positions.

So how have the recent moves affected these two positions? Lets start with the QB.

IMO, the moves to date don’t affect the QB class. Sure there are some that think that the trade of Cutler to Chicago puts the Broncos in the running for a QB, but I don’t see it. Not with Orton being a great fit for McDaniel’s offense and the large contract given to Chris Sims. I see a late round pick at QB for the Broncos, and the Bears would have been set running with Orton had they not acquired Cutler.

The QB position will drive much of the draft, but the moves are yet to come. So what teams potentially could draft a QB in the 1st round? To me the list looks like this:

Detroit (1, 20)
San Francisco (10)
New York Jets (17)
Tampa Bay (19)


At first glance not a whole lot of teams desperate for a QB, and, IMO, you can take the Jets off this list, as they have 2 unproven youngsters on the roster already, I think they are far more likely to be in play for a veteran.

The intrigue here comes from the potential for a dark horse or three to jump into play. Some of the potential dark horses include:

Seattle (4) – are they sold on Hasselbeck being healthy enough to make another run, or the potential of Wallace to take the reigns if Hasselbeck can’t? Or does the new staff want to start fresh with their own franchise QB?

Cleveland (6)– Is Brady Quinn the future? Giving Anderson his roster bonus this season tells me they aren’t sold yet. Could Quinn be traded, resulting in the Browns taking another 1st round chance on a QB?

Washington (13) – I’m hesitant to throw them in this mix. Snyder is anything but patient, and QB’s take years to develop. Giving up on Campbell now signals that the team is looking at a couple rebuilding years on offense. This hardly matches what their off season moves thus far have indicated.

St. Louis (2) – See Seattle, but without a potential back-up plan in place. Back to back 2 win seasons, and a new coaching staff tells me that this could be a very likely landing spot for a QB.

Add these teams to the potential mix, and you see why there could very well be some movement in the top 10 to get into position for either Stafford or Sanchez, and why Freeman is looking like a top 15 pick, and not a 2nd rounder.

This also points to why things could get a bit complicated. Lets just say that Detroit is willing to send their 20 to Cleveland for Quinn. There is no guarantee that Sanchez or Stafford will still be there when Cleveland drafts at 6. So could the Lions select Sanchez #1, then trade him and the 20 to Cleveland for the 6 and Quinn, well not until the Browns are on the clock and the Lions can safely say that the OT they want is still on the board. In order to get a handle on that, you have to look at the OT class.

Much like the QB class, there are less premier tackles than there are teams that need one. The Bills trade of Peters just adds yet another team with a huge hole to the list. Those that stand out as needing an impact player here are:

Detroit (1, 20)
St. Louis (2)
San Francisco (10)
Buffalo (11, 28)
Washington (13)

Then you add the following teams that may not need one today, but can’t wait much longer to address the position:

Seattle (4) – Walter Jones is nearing the end, the time is now to bring in his replacement.

Cincinnati (6) – Carson Palmer needs to stay upright if the offense is to get back to where they were three years ago.

Oakland (7) – Retreads and projects litter the line.

Jaguars (8) – IMO, the failing of this team last season started on the line, putting this unit back together has to be a priority. Signing Holt opens up the option to pass on a WR.

Green Bay (9) – Free agency has opened a hole here.

This should tell you something about the value of a LT, 10 of the top 15 drafting teams have a need here (sure Buffalo’s need is due to trade, but Peter’s play last season screamed need already). And with only 4 tackles having top 15 grades, demand is much higher than supply.

The top 2 picks are going to go a long way to shaping this draft, and what shape it takes hinges on when the QB’s and OT’s go. If Detroit selects a QB, there will be allot of jockeying to get into position to take the next two guys. However if they select an OT, chaos could result as teams try to jump up. St. Louis’s follow up to Detroit’s 1st pick will cement the start of either the run at OT, or the maneuvering for a QB.

So how does this all affect the Raiders?

As a Raider fan I have to give credit to Davis and Cable, the number of bodies they brought in at OT allows them the flexibility to either stay out of this fray, and select one of the players who could slip due to inordinate demand at other positions. Or to be a player should a team get desperate for that #7 pick as there could very well either be just one OT left or someone could be in love with Sanchez. Or, they could very well grab any one of the 4 OT’s who could be there, with the flexibility to play him at either LT or RT depending on how the others already on the roster shake out.

For once the Raiders have set themselves up very well in the 1st round.

Drafting for Value, Part Two

First off, I would like to thank the guys over at blackreign.net for their feedback on the 1st column about drafting for value. Allot of what you are about to either read, or scroll past, is in response to their comments.

One aspect that definitely needs further clarification from the last column, is the Team Need Factor.

Determining a teams needs is very subjective. You would have a tough time getting 10 Raider fans to agree on the order of need for the team. And good luck getting behind the shield and finding out the only opinion that counts, Big Al’s.

The Team Need Factor for the Raiders that was used is my opinion. I based that opinion on carefully looking at the depth chart taking into consideration age and contract status. But I can easily see how some may have a completely different ranking when it comes to what the Raiders need. I don’t claim that my ranking is correct; I just think it is better than yours.

Next is the chart itself. I fully admit that this is far from a completed project. In order for the chart to become fully functional as a tool, the needs of every NFL team would need to be entered. You would have to fully stock the talent board (I have only the top 150). Then you could have a tool that is truly useful. Right now, it is nothing more than a concept and a means for explaining the value principle of drafting.

Furthermore, the chart is not intended to be a stand alone tool. There is allot more that should go into draft prep than ranking the players, determining their value in relation to one another, and then determining their value to the individual team. A major outside item would be mock drafts. There is a reason that NFL teams spend weeks with their coaches and scouting staffs locked down, running mocks and various scenarios to see what could happen draft day. This is valuable planning that can be used to prepare a team for what they may see when they are on the clock. Where the chart comes in is to help evaluate how a pick at 40, will affect your value at 71.

So if that is what it would be its best use, lets run through a scenario, a mock draft using the chart as a tool. I will be using the free mock draft from thehuddlereport.com as the basis for the mock. Stopping at each Raiders pick to discuss the options on the table, and how different pick would affect the potential value of the draft.

And we are off:

1)Detroit – Matt Stafford
2)St. Louis – Aaron Curry
3)Kansas City – BJ Raji
4)Seattle – Jason Smith
5)Cleveland – Malcolm Jenkins
6)Cincinnati – Eugene Monroe

So what do the Raiders have staring them in the face right now. By the Raiders player value chart here are the top 5 options with the 7th pick:



Grabbing Crabtree right here looks like a no brainer, his Raider Value is 370 points above the next available option. But, the point of this exercise is to look at the draft as a whole, simply running up to the podium with Crabtree scribbled on a card is not looking past the obvious.

So let’s dig deeper. 1st we will assume that the Raiders stand pat, don’t trade down and take Crabtree, how could that effect their next two picks? Right off the bat, due to the selection of Crabtree, you decrease the Raider Value of any future WR. For this sample’s purposes we will lop 200 points of their value. And we are going to be a little conservative in our projections, and assume any player who’s ranked above the Raiders selection will be gone. So what would the options potentially look like in the 2nd and 3rd round with the value of WR downgraded?

2nd Round Prospects

3rd Round Prospects

Things aren’t looking too bad from a Raiders prospective. With the remaining glaring needs for the team being at OL, DL and S, there are plenty of high value picks projected to still be there in the 2nd but the value potential for the 3rd is limited as there are only 2 picks with values over 700, and by maximizing the 2nd (selecting either an OT or DT) you are counting on a player at a high demand position not jumping. The Raiders can feel confident that they can exceed their target of 6604 value points selecting Crabtree 1st, but can they do better?

Say they select Orakpo 1st, there is more depth at WR in this years draft, so not downgrading the Value of the position opens up many more options in round 2 and affords more flexibility in round 3. The value point ceiling may not be as high, but the floor isn’t as low.

Then there is the large and in charge Andre Smith. The value point hit in the 1st round and subsequent limiting of options in 2 and 3 makes him a bit unpalatable.

As this column is getting a bit long already, and we are only at pick 7, we’ll hold off on trade down options for another post. And acting as the Raiders, we’ll swing for the fences and attempt to maximize our 3 round value by selecting Crabtree at seven.

1)Raiders - Michael Crabtree
2)Jacksonville – Jeremy Maclin
3)Green Bay – Brain Orakpo
4)San Francisco – Andre Smith
5)Buffalo – Everette Browm
6)Denver – Tyson Jackson
7)Washington – Michael Oher
8)New Orleans – Rey Maualuga
9)Houston – Chris Wells
10)San Diego – Eben Britton
11)NY Jets – Mark Sanchez
12)Denver – Brian Cushing
13)Tampa Bay – Josh Freeman
14)Detroit – Peria Jerry
15)Philadelphia – Percy Harvin
16)Minnesota – Darrius Heyward-Bey
17)New England – Aaron Maybin
18)Atlanta – Robert Ayers
19)Miami – Vontae Davis
20)Baltimore – Hakeem Nicks
21)Indianapolis – Kenny Britt
22)Philadelphia – Knowshon Moreno
23)NY Giants – Clay Matthews
24)Tennessee – Darius Butler
25)Arizona – Brandon Pettigrew
26)Pittsburgh – Michael Johnson
27)Detroit – James Laurinaitis
28)New England – William Beatty
29)St. Louis – Brian Robiskie
30)Cleveland – Larry English
31)Seattle – Alex Mack
32)Cincinnati – Max Unger
33)Jacksonville – Alphonso Smith

The Raiders are back on the clock with the 40th overall pick. Crabtree is on a plane to Oakland for a Sunday morning meet and greet with the media. And it is time to get serious again. The Raiders are feeling pretty good right now, and one look at their top 6 remaining players by Raider Value shows why.



Now conventional wisdom may tell you that Delmas is the highest ranked player, and has slipped 6 spots to the Raiders, grab him now. But when you look at the chart, even if he is the highest rated player, his value to the Raiders isn’t as high as the DT who is still there. And a quick look at what remains of the potential 3rd round picks should clear things up.



Selecting Delmas in the 2nd would cause the Raiders to take a 600 point value hit. Without opening up the possibility of making that up in the 3rd. If the Raiders truly want to go with a combination of S & DT in the 2nd and 3rd, Hood and Vaughn gives a value of 2321, while Delmas and Moala gives a value of 1990. And there are higher score possibilities than Hood and Vaughn, Delmas and Moala just about maxes out your potential.

So of course, since we are riding with Big Al, once again we swing for the fences and select Ziggy Hood at the 40 spot.

I’ll save you recapping the rest of the 2nd round and the 3rd, and just point you to:

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdrafts.shtml

It has been entirely coincidence that my Raider picks have matched up with theirs. Lucky for me as it has made this easier. Since my board is currently only good through 3 rounds, we’ll take a look at what is still there for the Raiders, and see how we did.

So based on their mock, what is there in terms of best value for the Raiders at 71?



Some surprises to say the least, conservatively the Raiders had been hoping to get around 700 points of value out of their 3rd round pick. They can now max it out at 1278 by selecting Sidbury (remember since we have already selected a WR, we cut 200 points off their value).

Crabtree – Hood – Sidbury

At 8258 points on the Raider Value board, it would be hard to imagine the Raiders having a better 1st 3 rounds (ok I admit, I have already come up with ways to top it). Having the values predetermined made it easy to decide if you should pass on a sliding player (Delmas) or jump on them (Sidbury) on the fly.

Of course, this is the Raiders I am drafting for, so just before making the call to NY to send in the Sidbury pick, Big Al wakes from his nap, sees Asher Allen on the board and overrules, selecting the CB with great speed.

Crabtree – Hood – Asher

7746 points, still a solid 1st three rounds, but once again Raider fans are fuming as the old man puts the secondary needs in front of building a solid line.

Hope this helped clarify how I see this chart working as one tool among many in evaluating a team’s options in the draft. There are still plenty of things to look at as far as uses for this chart, including trade evaluation and a request for what happens when a premier player slips to the 2nd.

Drafting For Value, A Different Way of Evaluating The Draft

(Note this is a long one, I suggest you print it out and take it with you to the shitter, thanks goes out to Rupert, for reviewing the 1st draft of this and providing valuable feedback)

For the last couple years I have stressed that teams should not simply draft the Best Player Available (BPA) or to fill a need. I have stressed maximizing the value of a team’s picks, but quantifying this when trying to argue the point with others has been difficult.

Sure it is easy to debate if a RB should ever be taken in the top 10 by a team who isn’t drafting that high due to injuries or trade (the answer is no, and I will argue this until blue in the face, sorry McFadden fans). But to expand this across all positions as a starting point for any team looking at the draft, that is more difficult.

With that in mind, I have tried to come up with a system, one that assigns values to players based on a number of factors, and weighs that against a value chart for the draft and the team’s needs. The goal is to be able to look at the chart and come up with the best case for the Raiders to maximize their value in the 1st three rounds of the draft.

First thing first, I scrapped the traditional draft value chart. The NFL was a different monster when Jimmy Johnson and his brain trust came up with the chart in the 90’s. There was no salary cap, plan B free agency was a joke, and the players at the top of the draft got paid well, but not the absurd sums they do today.

What I came up with is a system where the #1 pick is worth 5000 points, and every subsequent pick is worth 97% of the previous picks value. Then I added some modifiers. IMO the 11th pick of the draft is more valuable than the 10th, since once you get out of the top 10, the salary demands become more reasonable. But the value goes down more after 15, since you then enter the realm of 5 year vs. 6 year deals. Further modifications were made at the 33 spot, as, IMO, 33 is more valuable than 31 & 32 since you get an equivalent player, at a 2nd round price tag.

(Yes I know there is no 8th round, but the NFL hands out about 32 compensatory picks on average, adding the equivalent of an 8th round to the draft, hence the 8 rounds on my chart).

Revised Pick Value Chart

There is no reason that a team wanting to jump from the 3rd pick to the 1st should have to give up a 2nd and 3rd rounder. Under my revised system the value is simply a 3rd rounder. There is a reason so many of the trades in recent drafts make no sense to the talking heads on ESPN as they consult their charts. Their charts are out of date.

So now I have, at least in my mind, my value chart for every pick in the draft. The next step is to stack the draft board regardless of team need. I don’t claim to watch every game, or be very good at evaluating players who are outside of the box. So I grabbed a ranking from a popular site. The Key was to find a ranking that was by grade, not by projected draft spot, or weighted by the value of the position (we’ll do that adjustment ourselves).

Then that ranking was combined with the value chart above, resulting in the following ranking with trade chart value and player grade.

Top 15 Prospects by Grade W/ Pick Value

Still with me? Because now it gets complicated.

Now 3 factors are taken into account to get the players value modifier:

1 – Grade. The most important factor of the rankings I found. The higher the player’s grade, the better the chance that they produce at the next level, in theory anyway. (Well, much better than the ranking by position I originally used).

2 – Number of player at your position in the next 32. This is important for determining the scarcity of players at your position in the draft. For example after Stafford, there are only 2 other QB’s with rankings in the next 32 overall, while Jason Smith gets hurt since there are 4 more tackles in the next 32.

3 – Positional Value Differential. This is used for determining the difference in value between the players at the same position. While there is only a 2 point differential between Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe, there is a 16 point difference between B.J. Raji and the next ranked DT.

Those 3 factors are put into a formula to obtain the player’s value modifier. With the depth of OT’s in the 1st round, Jason Smith only gets a modifier of +4, while Mark Sanchez, due to there being only one more QB with a 1st round grade, gets a huge 113 point boost.

After that the player gets an NFL position modifier. This is based on the scarcity and importance of the position in the NFL game. The highest value goes to QB, as is fitting for the most important position in the modern game. Then from there it hits the other key players on both sides of the passing game (offensive tackles, and the pass rushers who go against them) down to the plug and play positions (RB, FB, S). Look to the franchise numbers assigned to each position to get a good gauge of that position’s value to NFL teams.

The value modifier is added to the original value and the total is multiplied by the positional modifier to get the adjusted player value:

Top 15 Prospects by Adjusted Player Value

Feel like you are reading Pro Football Prospectus yet? I am guessing I have put half my readers to sleep by now. Leaving one of you who has gotten to this point.

As you can see, Jason Smith remains the top rated player in terms of value, but my personal favorite player in the draft, Aaron Curry, drops to 11th.

Curry’s drop should not be surprising. There are 5 other LB’s in the draft with 1st round rankings, and the linebacker position is not valued as much in the current NFL as evidenced by the franchise number for the position when compared to the franchise numbers for QB’s, OT’s and DE’s.

Then there is Josh Freeman, who jumps up to 13. This illustrates both the premium put on his position, and the scarcity of viable quarterbacks in this year’s draft.

All this is great, but we still have to get to the key point. How do you maximize the value of the draft pick for your team? You have determined the player’s value at this point with no consideration for team needs. Now is the time to add in that one final factor.

The team need modifier is based on the same sliding scale as the NFL positional modifier, but of course taking into account the team’s current depth chart and the remaining years of the contracts for the players at the position.

Since I claim to be a Raiders blog, I will obviously use the Raiders for my example. The Raiders low modifier is RB. With Fargas, McFadden, Bush and Rankin already on the depth chart, the Raiders have both depth and youth. The high modifier is WR where the Raiders have plenty of unproven youth, but no depth. WR is closely followed by DT, DE, S and OT. So now with the Raiders needs added in, the Raiders player value for the top 15 players in the draft looks like this:

Top 15 Players By Value to The Raiders

With a revised value chart rating of 4165, the Raiders have plenty of potential picks that represent great value in the 1st round. Not a bad position to be in. The Raiders can stand pat at 7 and easily expect to get no worse than the 6th player in terms of value for their team, and more likely should better that, as both QB’s and Curry could go before the Raiders select.

But the draft is not a one round animal. In order to maximize the value you get in the draft you have to project further than the 1st round. In order to keep this simple (HA, if you are still reading this I am impressed) I will just add in some information on 2nd and 3rd rounders.

With the Raiders drafting at 40, let’s stick to the players ranked from 35 to 50 in adjusted player value to get a realistic feel for who may potentially be there:

Potential 2nd Round Picks

The Value of the Raiders 2nd round pick is 1756 based on my revised value chart. There is far less value for the Raiders at positions of need in the 2nd than the 1st.

So what does that tell you, it indicates to me that this is a very tradable pick for the Raiders. The key is how do you react as the draft unfolds? Do you try to jump up to get a player like Ziggy Hood or Kenny Britt who fills a need and represents great value? Do you stand pat and hope that a value player drops to you and take that player or reach? Or do you wait, see that the value isn’t there for your team, and trade down?

Before we try to answer that, lets look at what may still be there in the 3rd round. And take the 1st three rounds in as a whole.

Potential 3rd Round Picks

With a pick value of 683 for the 71st pick, based on the revised chart, there once again is not allot of value for the Raiders at this position. But, you cannot look at the draft in terms of one round at a time when trying to maximize value. You have to look at your draft as a whole.

When you combine the Raiders 1st three picks this season, you get a total potential value of 6604 on the revised value chart. So lets look at some of the more popular 3 round series that Raider fans and draft experts have thrown out there, and see how they compare to the target value of 6604.

1)Crabtree, Brace, More – 7250 points
2)Raji, Delmas, Robiskie – 6396 points
3)Orakpo, Britt, Chung – 7397 points

Now I am not trying to argue against Raji or for Orakpo at this point, I am merely illustrating how one pick starts the dominos in motion and effects the potential overall value of the draft for the team. We still have two weeks until the draft to discuss potential trades, and who I feel the Raiders should draft 1st to maximize their potential value in this years draft.

That’s right, this column checks in at 7 pages, almost 2000 words and 6 charts, and we are just getting started.

Fixing the Defense...Again

Well we have passed the mid-way point of another season of NFL football, so as Raider fans its time to look to next year…

God that sucks.

But then again, so does this team. From top to bottom this team needs and enema. Or at least I know trying to digest the garbage on the field every week gives me the shits.

So where to start? It was about this time last season I advocated finally letting Rob Ryan do what he was brought here to do, and implement the 3-4/4-3 hybrid defense. Watching the Raiders futile attempts to stop the most basic of run games lets start with the defense, what is wrong, and how GM brick would start to fix it.

1st things 1st, this defense is such a huge mess, in order to fix the problem; we must try to figure out how we got to this point. During the three straight AFC West Championship years the defense was at least above average. Since then things have gone downhill, and while Ryan deserves his share of the blame, I don’t believe that it is entirely his fault.

Ryan was brought on board to run the 3-4/4-3 hybrid defense that N.E. was running with great success, as they utilized a great mix of young guns, over the hill vets and journeymen to dominate the AFC (sound familiar). Things were looking pretty good that off-season as 3-4 vets Ted Washington and Bobby Hamilton were brought on board to shore up the line, along with a number of journeymen LB’s. Then Al Davis stepped in, and in a classic Davis move signed “premier” free agent in Warren Sapp.

Sapp was a horrible fit at DE in the 3-4, and that along with a multitude of injuries among the linebacker core resulted in a horrible season defensively for the Raiders. There were bright spots, including the emergence of an undrafted DE named Tommy Kelly.

The 3-4 was subsequently jettisoned the following season. However, to this day, the personnel remain a miss match to the scheme.

Since this is GM brick’s take, we will work from the inside out, since that is how GM brick thinks you build a defense.

At DT the line-up currently features:

Tommy Kelly, Gerald Warren, Terdell Sands and Fred Wakefield.

Kelly is not a true under (or 3 technique) tackle, his skill set is better suited to a 3-4 end.

Warren is an under tackle, but he is being asked to 2 gap.

Sands cannot seem to 2 gap, but when asked to simply push his guy back 2-3 yards he can be a force.

Wakefield, well this jack of all trades cannot master any.

This is a huge problem for the Raiders right there. Say what you will about the talent level of the defense. There is no depth to this rotation, and the only two players who should be starting are at the wrong position. There are huge holes for the running game as there are two players single gapping (and being handled one on one) and with no depth there are constant breakdowns by the 4th quarter.

Oh, and before I forget, William Joseph has been added back to the mix, once again with the same skill set as Warren and Kelly, just less of it, so maybe I was better to forget this.

Moving to defensive end, things get no better.

The line-up of Derrick Burgess, Jay Richardson, Kalimba Edwards and Trevor Scott strike fear into, well it should strike fear into the Raiders secondary.

Derrick Burgess should be a pass rush specialist, come in on 2nd and long and 3rd down, he should be nowhere near the field on run downs. This is not because of his heart, but physically he cannot handle the pounding of lining up against right tackles all day. His two healthy seasons are proving to be an aberration to his injury marked career. Throw in that I for one feel he is overrated as a pass rusher, as he is a complete hit or miss player, and well, time to move on.

Jay Richardson shows a lot of promise as a base defensive end, however with the Raiders desperate to find any sort of pass rush, he is being asked to fill the void from the injured Burgess, once again here is a player who’s skill set does not match what he is being asked to do.

Kalimba should also be a pass rush specialist, and prior to the Burgess injury, that looked like what the Raiders had planned, but he is a liability anytime the offense runs the ball, as he has no concept of backside contain, and cannot stand up to run blocking.

Trevor Scott…see Kalimba Edwards.

There it is, up and down the defensive line players are being asked to do things they just cannot do. Which leads us to the linebacker core.

The law firm of Howard and Morrison has many Raider fans thinking that greatness is just around the corner. Throw in solid play from the likes of Ricky Brown, Robert Thomas, Jon Alston and the occasional missed tackle from Sam Williams and this unit would seem to have a lot of potential.

Here is the thing, the way these guys are currently playing, that potential is being wasted.

Kirk Morrison is constantly overrated by Raiders fans, in my not so humble opinion, he cannot shed blocks, constantly runs himself out of position, and seems to have put on some weight this season, leaving him a step behind in pass coverage.

Thomas Howard is a beast, and could start for almost any team in the league, but with the limitations of the players around him, he is constantly getting lost in the wash.

The rest of the linebackers are serviceable vets, they all bring limited skill sets to the table, which in the right system could flourish.

The secondary isn’t broken, so I won’t say much, except that to expect anything more than what you are getting without any semblance of a pass rush, or any ability to slow the run is foolhardy.

So how do you fix the front seven? I’m not one to complain without offering a solution. That is why my posts tend to be so long. So lets get right into it.

1st things 1st, pick a scheme and stick to it, and get rid of the players who do not fit what you are trying to do.

If you want to stick with the 4-3, rotate Kelly and Warren at the under tackle. Find a big body to compliment Sands and rotate the two of them. Find a DE to compliment Edwards and rotate Scott, Edwards, Richardson and the DE to be named later.

The linebacker core should be improved just from the moves at the DT position. Howard and Morrison need room to move. And upgrade at SAM would be nice, but there are only so many moves you can make in one off-season. Sounds easy, but the Raiders have struggled to find a DT or DE worth a damn since Howie Long retired, let alone 2 starting quality players in one off-season. Then you throw in that chances are Burgess and Warren most likely will be gone next season, and it’s not so easy.

Or you can work to the majority of you current player’s strengths and move to a 3-4 base.

Kelly and Richardson would be your base ends. Which works out well as this plays to both players’ strengths. Sands would be your NT, lined up head on the center with the green light to try and penetrate and wreak havoc, he might even begin to earn his salary. You no longer need to find players who can win pass-rush match-ups one on one, so the rest of the depth chart can be filled with journeymen.

At LB, you have plenty of flexibility with the current players. Howard and Williams have the speed to rush or drop back. Putting both of these players on the ends at the same time could be a real match-up nightmare. Morrison has the look of a WMLB in the 3-4, free to flow to the play, with no backside responsibility he could look much like Ed Hartwell did in Baltimore. The question becomes can the Raiders find someone to man the SMBL, can Brown, or Thomas step up here? Or is this a position you find through free agency or the draft. Depth is also a problem, as you would need one or two journeymen to fill some voids.

In the end, there is more work to do to get a 3-4 up and running than a 4-3, however I feel the 3-4 is more attainable than the 4-3 given the limitations of the current personnel and what I feel is the pending departure of Warren and Burgess.

So there you go. GM brick would bring in 3-4 personnel and give Rob Ryan one season of free reign to work his magic. Lets see if the apple has fallen that far from the tree, or, if release of the shackles of the current scheme restrictions, Ryan can produce similar results to his father and brother.

Losing Lane, Part 2 - The Aftermath (AKA Sick of it All)

So it has been almost 48 hours now since the Raiders fired yet another coach. Things seem to have settled down on the Raider boards and in the media. The expected has happened, the majority of sports writers and talking heads have crucified Al Davis. Lane Kiffin has wisely shut his mouth and is now doing household chores for his wife. And reigning Brickinthebox man of the year Tom Cable now sits on the hot seat as Raiders head coach.

If you have followed the Raiders for any length of time, you knew that Davis was in a no win situation here. Fire Lane and say nothing, and the media simply runs the same rumors that they have for the last year and a half, showing how dysfunctional Al is and praises Lane for lasting so long. Have the press conference and address the rumors that have come out, and Al is a vindictive old man.

Few, if any, writers or talking head will stick up for Davis in any manner. Davis has burned too many bridges in the media community. Davis didn’t help things any by referring to Mort as a professional liar in the press conference. Davis’s bunker mentality has allowed the media to run wild for years with disinformation when it comes to the Raiders. So when Al does emerge from his self imposed exiles to address issues, he ends up painting the reporters as liars and rumor mongers. Its no wonder that the media doesn’t like him.

That said, the media response is often comical. Mort went on Mike and Mike to address the Lane Kiffin firing and tried to strike back at Al. In trying to show that Lane wasn’t his source for his information, Mort claimed that he learned that Cable was the next head coach before the announcement. Congratulations Mort, we all did thanks to Adam Schefter. But that is typical ESPN, if someone else breaks a story, than ESPN just plugs in the standard phrase “ESPN has learned” rather than credit any other organization.

Mort went on to defend Lane in the same bumbling manner. He brought up Lane’s attempt to bring his father Monte as the new Raiders defensive coordinator. Mort questioned why the Raiders wouldn’t want perhaps the best defensive coordinator of the last 10+ years as their new DC. Lets keep it simple; Monte was under contract with the Bucs. Any attempt by any member of the Raiders organization to recruit Monte would be considered tampering. That tampering could result in the Raiders forfeiting draft picks. However Mort is willing to overlook this to defend his source in Lane, and his honor as a media member.

It doesn’t stop there with the media. Normally fair minded outlets like Pat Kirwan decided to blast Al and defend Lane. Dismissing the possibility that Lane did anything wrong in this matter, using the same old rumors and innuendo that have circulated around the Raiders for years and miss citing the letter sent to Lane after the Denver game. Why, because Lane is a family fried who regularly appears on his program.

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t this has become the story of Al’s later years.

Lane predictably has gone strangely quite now. He rewarded his media outlet of choice, ESPN, with an interview where he squirmed under softball questions and a fluff piece with Sirius NFL radio and his friend Pat Kirwan. After months of leaking information and blatantly calling out the organization in press conferences, Lane decided to choose the high road. You could smell the bullshit through the TV screen and over the radio. Lane publicly undermined the team for months, and now that he was called out he hid behind his boyish smirk.

There is no doubt in my mind that had Al not dressed Lane down in his press conference Lane would have gone forward with his planned press conference Wednesday and put his spin out there on the issues. Al beat him to the punch. Lane didn’t take the high road, he had the rug pulled out from under him by an old man. If Lane ever found himself on the high road he would be telling some balding hunter how he must have taken a wrong turn at Albuquerque.

Then there is the final dance partner in this strange threesome. Brickinthebox’s 2007 man of the year; Tom Cable. Obviously I have allot of respect for Cable if I have plastered his face on every page of my website. So how will he fair as the interim head coach of the Raiders, well that is anybody’s guess, lets bore you with mine.

Cable is an ex-offensive lineman, and offensive line coach. Sure he has some experience as a head coach at Northwestern Idaho or something like that (no we don’t have a fact checker here) but the history of ex-offensive lineman dealing with Davis is promising. Offensive linemen generally are not ones to seek out attention and praise. It is a product of the position. If you are getting attention, chances are you fucked up. Working the thankless jobs becomes a way of life.

John Madden was an offensive lineman in his playing days, he may have been linebacker coach prior to taking over as the head coach of the Raiders, but doing the thankless jobs prepared him for working in Al’s shadow. Art Shell was a hall of famer, and say what you will about his last year as the Raider’s HC, his 1st tour of Duty was generally successful, even if he never guided the team to a ring. The key is for Cable to surround himself with coaches who can handle the X’s and O’s, and allow him to work with his lineman, and just take care of the head coach responsibilities of oversight, and clock management. Oh, and living in Al’s shadow.

If Cable can translate his ability to get the most out of offensive lineman, into the ability to get the most out of an entire team, the Raiders should be fine for this season. I’m not seeing playoffs, but respectable play. Will this mean he is retained at head coach at the end of the year, I don’t know. But I think it makes the most sense, as it gives the Raiders their best chance of retaining the offensive staff that has been working with JRuss to date. Which, since it makes the most sense, means it is the least likely outcome.

And finally, how has this affected me. Well we broke all of our traffic records here at Brickinthebox over the last 2 days. Which really excited me, who knows, the Raiders plight could lead to this site taking off. Until I took a closer look at the numbers, it seems that 90% of my hits came from people looking for pictures of Tom Cable, and most of them didn’t stick around long enough to get through one of my diatribes. Oh well, I guess it is back to the grind for me.

Losing Lane, Part 2 - The Press Conference

I won’t lie to you, heading into yesterday’s press conference I was ready to damn Al. I am sick and tired of the revolving door of Raider head coaches. I wish my team had a clear vision for what they are trying to do. Would set a plan and stick to it. I had seen enough of Kiffin so far to say “lets give the kid a little more time and see if he can develop.”

Then I listen to Al as I drove home from work as he laid it all out there. Almost every rumor that we have been subjected to over the past year and a half was addressed. Now I may not take everything Al said at face value, but what he said struck me as being closer to the truth than the reports that we have gotten. I have to face it, when Al speaks, I listen.

So lets break it down.

Al confirmed that there was dissention over the #1 pick in the 2007 draft. This is no surprise, there should be a healthy amount of debate over any pick, let alone one that will receive that much money. As long as both parties agree to disagree and move on this shouldn’t be a problem.

Al confirmed that there was interest in Lane from Arkansas. Now I will leave it up for debate whether or not Lane was interested in them, and if he was upset that he didn’t get the job. Someone at Arkansas contacting Al, does not mean that Lane put his hat into the ring.

Al corrected the whole resignation letter issue from this past off-season. I never put much stock into Mort’s report that Al tried to have Lane resign, the story didn’t pass the smell test. Al and Lane’s lawyers coming up with language to terminate Lane’s contract in the case that Lane wanted to take another job, that jives with me.

Al confirmed that Lane wanted to fire Rob Ryan. Once again, the way Al claims this went down makes perfect sense to me. Lane wanted to bring in his father and the Tampa-2. Not making this move makes sense from a player personnel and contract standpoint. This should have been back burnered until this coming off-season when the elder Kiffin would have been out of his contract.

Al read his letter to Lane. I have written many letters of default, I recognize one when I see it. This was a bad example of writing one, but there is no doubt about what Al was trying to do. This was Lane’s last warning. Frankly too much has been put into this letter by Raider fans. This is not “proof” of any wrong doing by Lane, it is not proof that Lane wanted any of the players mentioned in the letter. A well-written letter of default would have sited chapter and verse the clauses in the contract violated, and how they were violated. This was an emotional warning letter from Al. If I ever sent out a letter like this I would have some serious questions to answer from my superiors.

If you read this blog regularly, you know that I supported Kiffin fully this off-season until he called out Ryan in the media. At that point I felt that he had gone too far. I hoped that everything could still be mended, for the good of the team, but apparently that was the last straw for Al. Sure Al’s letter said that Lane could have rectified the situation, but any misstep, no matter how small would have meant the end of the Kiffin era.

Here is the thing, when Al laid it all out on the table, I came to agree that it was time to fire Kiffin. It was clear that the working environment had deteriorated beyond repair. Why, through the actions of Lane Kiffin. The constant blabbing and leaking of information to the media could only have come from one source, Lane Kiffin.

All day I have heard about what a piece of garbage Al is for handling the press conference the way that he did. For airing the Raider’s dirty laundry in the media. The laundry was already out there, it had been hung by young Lane over the course of the last year. All Al did was put the Raider’s spin on it. For Lane to go on Sirius NFL radio and say he wouldn’t stoop to Al’s level was laughable, Lane dragged him down into the mud, Al just finally slung back.

There are times that I hate what the Raiders have become. I hate how they cannot put a competent team on the field the last 5 years. I hate how there is seemingly no coherent plan to build this team back up. I hate the lack of consistency in coaching. I hate how my team has become a laughing stock. And in the end all of these things trace back to the actions of one person, Al Davis. But for one day yesterday, I was back in Al’s camp. The old man still has it.

Losing Lane, Part 1 - Lane the Coach

First things first, happy Eid to everyone, hopefully the end of Ramadan will mean that I get back to feeling like a normal human being, and for my lucky readers, I get back to a semi-regular schedule of posting.

Now it seems like there is a 300lb elephant in the room, something that I should be writing about. Did something big happen? Wall Street Bailout, presidential debates, no, you don’t come here for any of that. Oh, Lane Kiffin got fired, I almost forgot about that.

My faith in Lane has waned since the start of the season. Calling out Rob Ryan did not sit well with me. The KC game did little for me, because, well it was KC. It was the Buffalo game and the San Diego game that really got me wondering if this guy had what it takes to be a successful head coach.

In Buffalo the offense was putrid. The Rob Ryan bashers loved to point out this as yet another case of Rob calling a prevent D and surrendering a big lead. 1st things 1st, if you believe that Ryan called a prevent D, do yourself a favor. Go learn what a prevent defense is, then watch the tape. Soft zones, go watch the tape, the players are in man the vast majority of the game. That cushion that Hall gives up, that is how he plays man, get used to it.

That game was lost for 2 reasons. One being that the offense failed to have a drive longer than 6 plays the entire game. The other being that the Raiders dressed only 6 defensive linemen for the game. You are going to let your defensive front go up against one of the biggest Offensive lines for almost 40 minutes, with 2 subs. completely asinine.

We then witnessed almost a play for play repeat performance the following week against San Diego. The Defense was brilliant, up until the time the wheels fell off since the Offense could not put together a drive of more than 3 plays.

Time and time again I have said that I don’t put the personnel problems on Lane, now according to Al, maybe I should. But truth be told, until I am hired by the Raiders and have 1st hand experience, you will never be able to tell me that anyone other than Al has the final say on personnel matters. So I will let Lane slide on the only having 6 defensive lineman.

It is the complete lack of anything resembling a competent offense that makes me question Lane. I understand the limitations of the Raider’s personnel. The wide receivers cannot get open. The tackles are suspect in pass blocking. The quarterback is basically a rookie. As a result opposing defenses are free to load up the box to shut down the run game.

However there are ways to overcome these limitations. Motion your receivers; give them some space coming off the ball. Run two tight end sets; chip the defensive ends before going out in pass patterns. Run some screens, not just on 3rd and long, but on normal downs as well. The play calling was so pathetically vanilla that a high school linebacker could read the tendencies.

So while I liked the way that Lane was seemingly a straight shooter (more on this later), how he seemed to have all the players on the same page, and how he seemed to finally bringing back some accountability to the players that had been missing since Gannon and Gruden. I was becoming disenchanted with the way Kiffin called a game, and the way he managed the clock and down and distance.

In the end, at this time Lane did not have what it takes to be a successful head coach at the NFL level. So I am not heartbroken that he is no longer the coach of the Oakland Raiders. There is something to be said for letting a coach grow with his team for continuities sake, but now we have to look at underling factors. Of course this is the Raiders we are talking about, so there is allot to look at. Meaning this column is long enough, and we will split this into two parts, because I need to get some real work done.

Brick's Picks Week 2

It is already Thursday; goddamn this week is flying by. Since I don’t know if I will have time to write anything tomorrow I decided to flip a coin and either write an NFL preview, or One Game to Watch. Then I decided that everyone is going to be watching USC destroy THEO anyway, so why bother, every player on USC is a future All-Pro, and the Buckeye are sure to have a bunch of assholes. So that made the decision easy. NFL preview it is.

1st things 1st, there is something I need to get off my chest; this whole Tom Brady thing has really been getting to me. I admitted that I reacted with Glee when I saw the Golden Boy go down on Sunday. Then time and time again I heard how terrible it is that people cheer because Tom Terrific got injured, how it is a sign of our downfall as a society, and it really made me think, it made me think:

SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU LIMP WRISTED PILLOW BITERS

Oh, so you have never taken joy in the misfortune of others. Bullshit. We all do it, all for our own reasons. See the brand new Mercedes driven by some prick back into a telephone pole, hilarious, see the red neck get busted on cops, laugh out loud, see the pretty boy get broken, funny as shit.

Now think about it, why are each of these funny, and worth watching time and time again. If you own a Mercedes chances are you are a pretentious fuck, and need to be taken down a peg, we all hate you and its fun to watch you suffer. Do I really need to explain how funny it is to watch trailer trash get busted for meth? And then there is dear old Tom.

When I cheer, I am not so much cheering for Tom’s injury, I am cheering for the shattered dreams of Millions of New England band wagoners. The insufferable lot that has become worse than Yankee fans the past 7 years. It wasn’t bad after the 1st Super Bowl win, everyone knew it was a joke and they had been handed the game by the refs, deep down I’m pretty sure that the Pats fans did too. But then things snowballed, the Pats won again and again, the Sox won twice, hell I hear that the basketball team did well also.

The level of hubris is New England became staggering. Talking to a Red Sox fan became the same as talking to a Yankee fan when they were on their run. The Pats fans constant claims that no one respected them were pathetic. Did they really feel that they were entitled to at least a full hour of SportsCenter devoted to their team; yes the sense of entitlement really had gotten that out of control.

So seeing one of the key players on their team go down, and potentially throw their whole season into turmoil was worthy of being cheered. I have nothing against Brady, I will still marvel at the way he picks apart defenses while his line holds away, and it could have been any one of a number of Pats getting injured that would have caused me delight. Not due to the physical pain inflicted on the player, but for the mental anguish inflicted on the Fans.

On to the Picks:

Remember these are the games that I plan on watching a good portion of, so they may not be the best match-up, but they are the ones I care about.

Raiders + 3.5 at Chiefs

As good as I felt about the Brady injury, a Pats fan actually made a great point to me this week. As bad as the Matt Cassel era may turn out to be, he would actually rather watch that than the product the Raiders have put out on the field the last 5 years. And I couldn’t disagree. So is this the week that the defense gets its collective heads out of their Asses? Chances are no, but I am a homer so:

The Pick – Raiders

New England +1.5 at NY Jets

A week ago I would have done anything to avoid watching this game, I am so sick of Attention Whore Theater staring #4. But now, with Matt Cassel at the helm, I am going to delight in rubbing it in to Favre fans when the Patriots, without their franchise QB, still beat the hugely overrated Jets.

The Pick – New England

Pittsburgh at Cleveland +6

The Steelers have a Great week 1 victory against the Texans, and Brady gets hurt and now they are Super Bowl favorites? Really, has anyone looked at their schedule and their O-line? Now I don’t expect them to have much trouble with Cleveland this week, but reality is going to hit the Steel City hard in a couple weeks.

The Pick – Pittsburgh

San Diego at Denver +1.5

Is Denver for real, or is Oakland really that bad. What a shitty reason for watching a game. Fuck I hate how my team sucks.

The Pick – We all loose

Philadelphia +7 at Dallas

Is it just me, or does the Eagles offense have some incredible week 1 performance every other year? Well I for one hope it continues this week, if only because it is fun to listen to Cowboys fans make excuses, and Eagles fan is so miserable that you kind of have to pity them. Sort of the way it used to be with Yankees and Red Sox fans. So for that reason I hope the City of Philadelphia never wins a Championship again, we can’t afford any more fan bases going the way of Boston’s.

The Pick – Philly with the points

Enjoy your weekend, am root along with me for the following things:

Randy Moss to return his head to up his ass
Another Seahawk receiver to get a season ending injury
Ben Roethlisberger to choke to death at Primantis
The accidental dropping of a Bomb at Invesco